Last Updated: May 11, 2026
In the long journey toward a U.S. Green Card, perhaps the most nerve-wracking moment is the time spent waiting for the Visa Bulletin to be released in the middle of each month. As we move into mid-May, all eyes are now on the U.S. Department of State website for the upcoming June 2026 Visa Bulletin.
The May Visa Bulletin, released last month, was a disappointment for many. Instead of the expected forward movement, major employment-based categories remained in a state of “total stagnation,” not moving even a single day. In this post, we will deeply analyze why this stagnation occurred and what signs of change we can expect in the upcoming June bulletin based on historical patterns and current data.
1. Deep Dive into the May Bulletin: The Stalled Clock
The May Visa Bulletin, released in mid-April, essentially saw the “pause” button pressed across all Employment-Based (EB) categories. This isn’t just bad luck; it’s the result of the structural mechanisms of U.S. immigration administration. The U.S. government’s Fiscal Year (FY) begins in October and ends in September. May is the 8th month of the fiscal year, a point where a significant portion of the total visa quota has already been exhausted.
| Category | Final Action Date (May 2026) | Status & Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| EB-1 (Priority Workers) | Current | Still open, but adjudication is becoming stricter. |
| EB-2 (Advanced Degree) | Jan 15, 2023 | Stagnation is worsening due to the high volume of applicants. |
| EB-3 (Skilled Workers) | Nov 22, 2022 | Slow recovery following the retrogression in the previous quarter. |
| EB-3 (Other Workers) | Jan 01, 2021 | Long-term stagnation due to chronic quota shortages. |
2. June Bulletin Watch: Looking for Clues of Progress
The key indicator to watch in the June bulletin, which will be released in a few days, is “micro-movements in Priority Dates.” Even if a large jump is unlikely, any movement at all would be a signal that the Department of State has found some breathing room in quota management.
Recently, there have been reports within USCIS of reallocating adjudication staff to handle backlogged cases. Whether these administrative changes will be reflected in the June bulletin to provide relief for the stalled EB-2 and EB-3 categories is the biggest point of interest this month. If the stagnation continues into June, we may have to prepare for a long haul until the new fiscal year in October.
3. Second Half Outlook (July–September): Historical Pattern Analysis
Analyzing data from the past 10 years, the final quarter of the fiscal year (July, August, September) is often like the “calm before the storm.” Since quotas are nearly exhausted, retrogression is frequent. However, 2026 might show a slightly different pattern.
- Optimistic Outlook: The Department of State reallocates unused visa quotas to induce slight forward movement in July–August, accelerating I-485 approvals.
- Conservative Outlook: Dates remain near current levels through September to save quota, followed by a major jump of 6+ months in the October bulletin when FY 2027 begins.
In my personal view, considering the current high denial rates and the slower pace due to enhanced Security Vetting, it might take longer than expected for the Department of State to exhaust the quota. Paradoxically, this could create an opportunity for the bulletin to open up a bit more in the second half of the year.
4. Practical Preparations While Waiting for the Bulletin
We cannot change the bulletin dates, but seizing the opportunity when it opens is up to us. These preparations apply to both those seeking information for AdSense approval and actual Green Card applicants.
- Re-verify Medical Exam (I-693) Validity: Although USCIS recently extended the validity of medical results, old documents can still trigger an RFE.
- Organize Latest Employment Verification and Pay Stubs: When your date becomes current and you enter the approval stage, USCIS may request additional documents to confirm you are still working for your sponsor.
- Monitor Internal Status: Don’t just look at the bulletin dates; know which service center (NBC, TSC, etc.) your case is in and what the recent processing speeds are for that center through community data.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes based on public statistical data and personal experience and should not be considered legal advice under any circumstances. For accurate judgments regarding the Visa Bulletin and immigration procedures, please consult with a qualified immigration attorney.
Sources:
U.S. Department of State: Official Visa Bulletin Archive
USCIS: Visa Availability and Priority Dates Guide
American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) Reports
