When I started thinking about buying in 2023, mortgage rates were 7.5%. I waited. In 2024 they dropped to 6.5% and I almost pulled the trigger. I waited again. Now in May 2026 rates are at 6.3%, home prices are flat, and everyone’s asking the same question I’ve been asking for three years: is now the right time?
The data is actually clearer than it’s been in a while. Here’s what it shows.
Where the Market Stands: May 2026
| Metric | 2024 | May 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year mortgage rate | 6.5% | 6.3% | Slightly better |
| Median home price | $430k | $430k | Flat (0% growth) |
| Affordability index | Declining | +$30k improved | Better |
| Monthly payment ($300k house) | $1,896 | $1,859 | $37/mo cheaper |
| Home sales (YoY) | Declining | -3.6% (Mar) | Slower market |
Prices are flat, rates ticked down slightly, and fewer people are buying — which means less competition. For buyers who are ready, this is actually a more favorable environment than 2023 or 2024.
The Rate Question
The expert consensus is pretty consistent: Bankrate, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae, and Zillow all project rates staying above 6% through the rest of 2026. Waiting for 5% rates isn’t a strategy — it’s wishful thinking. If the house and your finances work at 6.3%, waiting for a rate drop that may not come this year costs you time you don’t get back.
The Real Math on a $300k House
| Scenario | Down payment | Monthly payment | Total interest (30yr) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% down (no PMI) | $60,000 | $1,431 | $215,160 |
| 10% down (+PMI) | $30,000 | $1,680 | $254,880 |
| 5% down (+PMI) | $15,000 | $1,859 | $289,240 |
The 20% down scenario is the one that makes sense. $1,431/month is meaningful — if you’re currently paying $2,000+ in rent, the monthly math already works in buying’s favor. But the true cost of ownership is higher than the mortgage payment alone.
Hidden Costs People Forget
The mortgage payment is just the starting point. A realistic monthly picture for a $300k house with 10% down looks like this: mortgage $1,680 + property tax ~$400 + homeowners insurance ~$100 + maintenance reserve ~$250 + PMI ~$250 = roughly $2,680/month. That’s $1,000 more than the mortgage alone. If you’re budgeting off the headline mortgage number, you’ll be caught off guard.
On top of that: closing costs run 2–5% of purchase price upfront ($6,000–$15,000), and selling costs run 5–6% when you eventually move. These transaction costs are the main reason buying doesn’t make financial sense unless you’re staying long enough to absorb them.
When to Buy, When to Wait
The case for buying now: You’re staying 5+ years. You have 20% down. Your income is stable and your visa situation is settled. You’re in a market where prices are likely to rise as inventory stays tight. You can comfortably cover the full cost of ownership — not just the mortgage.
The case for waiting: You might move in under 3 years. You have less than 10% saved (PMI makes the math worse). Your job or immigration status is uncertain. Or you’re simply waiting for a rate drop — though that’s probably not coming in 2026.
One thing worth saying clearly: if you’re on H-1B without an approved I-140, or still waiting on your green card, the 5-year timeline question gets a lot harder to answer. The financial math may work, but a forced job change or visa issue can upend it. Factor that in before committing.
My Situation
I’m still renting. I got my green card in 2026 and the uncertainty is finally gone, but I moved to a new city two years ago and I’m not sure I want to stay put for 10+ years yet. My rent ($2,100) is close enough to what ownership would cost ($2,200 all-in) that the flexibility still feels worth more than the equity right now. That calculation changes if I decide to settle here long-term.
If I knew I was staying 10 years? I’d buy today.